Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
